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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd