Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
