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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

But the latest race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still